research

Satoshi’s 2014 Email Hack

Abstract: We take a look back to 8th September 2014, the day Satoshi’s GMX email account was hacked. We talk about how the hack may have been conducted and what the hacker or hackers may have seen. We also disclose some emails between the hacker and Gregory Maxwell, for the first time. On 9th September...
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Ethereum ETFs & Staking

Abstract: In this piece we discuss the potential approval of Ethereum ETFs in the US. In particular we focus on the economics of staking and how the lack of a yield could diminish the attractiveness of non-staking Ethereum ETF products, to some extent. We also look at the challenges of implementing Staking Ethereum ETFs, in particular...
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COPA vs CSW – Day 16 – Craig’s Lawyers Do COPA’s Job For Them

In court today, it was the turn of the COPA expert witness, Mr Patrick Madden. Cross examination occurred in the morning, and was over much faster than expected. COPA’s key witness was expected to testify over two days, but it was over in just one morning. The key point Craig’s barrister made was that it...
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COPA vs CSW – Day 11 – Stefan Matthews

Executive Chairman and CEO of nChain Group, Stefan Matthews started his first day of cross-examination today. Stefan has been a key player in the Craig Wright saga, with deep involvement ever since Craig started claiming to be Satoshi. To this day, Stefan still maintains that Craig is Satoshi. In Court today Mr Matthews said: I...
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Cash vs In-kind ETFs

Overview The launch of the spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US looks to be just days away. According to a recent Reuters article, the products could launch as early as 10 January 2024. In preparation for the launch of these products, we have been publishing some data on the exchange traded product (ETP) space and...
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Crypto ETP Provider Data

Following on from yesterday’s post, which contained a full list of crypto related ETPs (The full list can be downloaded here), today we present some charts on the crypto ETP data. Number of Products by ETP provider Source: BitMEX Research, Bloomberg, ETP provider websitesNote: Data as at 22 Dec 2023 Assets by Provider ($m) Source:...
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Complete List of Cryptocurrency Related ETPs

Ticker Provider Type Name Assets $m Premium Flow 2023 YTD $m GBTC US Equity Grayscale BTC GRAYSCALE BITCOIN TRUST BTC 27,077.4 (5.6%) Not provided BITO US Equity Proshares BTC PROSHARES BITCOIN STRAT ETF   1,645.3 0.1% 450 BTCE GY Equity hanetf BTC BTCETC BITCOIN ETP   1,192.6 (0.2%) Not provided COINXBE SS Equity Coinshares BTC...
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Bitcoin Time Locks

Abstract: We examine the various time locks in Bitcoin, a feature which can ensure that a particular Bitcoin transaction is only valid until after a certain point in time, normally in the future. The report explains why the adoption of some of the time lock features are important from a mining incentivisation perspective and we...
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A Guide to Neutral Candlesticks

This article looks into the balance of all candlesticks, specifically neutral candlesticks and how they forecast trading performance in crypto.  What is A Spinning Top?  A Spinning Top is a candlestick pattern which symbolises market indecision, with close prices close to each other and identified by its short upper and lower wicks. What are the...
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Part 3: Trading Cups and Shoulders

This piece will delve further into neckline continuation patterns including Cup and Handle Patterns and Head and Shoulders, and how their unique layouts are important for any trader. This blog is part of a series that has already covered; the basics of chart patterns, guide to continuation patterns  and the roles of triangles.  What is...
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Getting paid in BTC in Singapore

This is a guest post, written by BitMEX_Pez Over the past week, I’ve been investigating how feasible it is to be paid in Bitcoin. In the past, I declined the opportunity, as more than half of my salary goes towards fixed costs in fiat terms such as my rent, mortgage, and school fees. However, with...
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SBF Trial – Closing Summations – 1 Nov 2023

THE COURT: Good morning, everyone. Everyone can be seated. The defendant and the jurors all are present. A word to the jury about schedule. You are going to hear closing argument today. We may finish them entirely today or we may not. That depends on how the day goes. If we don’t, they will be...
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SBF Trial – Full List of BitMEX Research Tweets

The CIO of Ikigai Asset Management, Mr Travis Kling sent us a message, he asked for a blog post with a link to every Tweet we made in relation to the SBF trial. We decided to comply. Please see all the links below: Full transcripts to the days with the SBF cross-examination Sam Bankman-Fried Trial –...
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Sam Bankman-Fried Trial Transcript – 31 October 2023

Below is the full transcript for events of 31 October 2023. Evidence finished on the day and closing statements will take place on 1st Nov 2023 THE COURT: Good morning. Before we bring the jury out, we’ve heard from the juror who didn’t know her schedule yesterday, and that juror has no problem that is,...
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The Lagged Impact Of Higher Rates

Abstract: Official inflation numbers have declined towards the 2% target and remarkably, interest rates have moved to historically more “normal” levels, above 5%. However, we predicted for years that returning to “normal” rates was impossible, we argued that the economy had rewired and was now addicted to near zero rates. Yet things seem fine now,...
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Bitcoin’s Culture War – Discussion With Udi Wertheimer

Abstract: We look at the recent apparent cultural schism in Bitcoin, in particular the so-called laser eyed Bitcoin maximalists and the accusation from “anti-maxis”, that this section of the community are too close minded and too dismissive of new ideas. We speak to a key proponent of this criticism of Bitcoin culture, Udi Wertheimer. We...
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How To Trade a XBT/USD Futures Contract With Leverage

This article explains how to place a trade using leverage on BitMEX. For the purpose of this example, we will use a XBT/USD futures contract on BitMEX. Such contracts on BitMEX are inverse futures contracts, with one example being XBTU23 – contract symbols are comprised of the Bitcoin symbol (XBT), accompanied by the respective expiry...
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How Leverage is Granted When Crypto Trading Margin and Futures Contracts 

As traders graduate from spot trading to using leverage either through margin trading or futures contracts, they invariably ask themselves “Where or who is providing the leverage?” This article has been created to explain how leverage is granted when trading margin and futures crypto contracts. What is Margin Trading and How Does it Work for...
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An Overview of Basis Trading Strategies in Crypto

A common question that traders have is how to execute interest rate trades using BitMEX products. These trades are also referred to as basis trades.  This article gives an overview of three basic basis trading strategies in crypto, which allow traders to capture basis as profit.  Where Does Basis Come From?  Traders on derivative exchanges...
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How Crypto Derivatives Products Reduce Counterparty Risk 

Traders who simply wish to buy and hold Bitcoin are recommended to either store their funds in cold storage, or keep them on a trustworthy and credible exchange. Exposure to counterparty risk only comes with a lack of understanding of the security and custody infrastructure of the counterparty – in this instance, the exchange.  The...
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A Look at Trading Crypto Perpetual Contracts on BitMEX 

A crypto perpetual contract, also known more commonly as a perpetual swap or just “perp”, is similar to a futures contract, except it has no expiry date.  This article was created to take a deeper look at “perps”.  An Overview of Interest Rate Swaps To explain what crypto perpetual contracts are and how they work,...
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Drivechains

Abstract: In this piece we evaluate Paul Sztorc’s BIP-300 and BIP-301 Drivechain proposals. We assess the sidechain peg-out system and the benefits of blind merge mining. In particular we discuss some of the Bitcoin mining economic and incentive arguments around sidechains. There are potentially higher mining costs associated with merge mining and the claim that...
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Gensler’s Done It All Before

Abstract: In this piece, we compare the gold & precious metals trading community (gold bugs) in the 2009 to 2012 period, to that of today’s cryptocurrency community. In particular we look at the similar and controversial nature of the role played by US regulator Gary Gensler today and thirteen years ago. In both cases, some...
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Miner Fee Gathering Capability (Part 2) – Out of Band Fees

Abstract: We take a second look at the fee differences between actual Bitcoin blocks produced by miners and the fees one may expect, based on a local Bitcoin Core node. We explore the concept of out of band fees as a potential explanation for these differences. We have detected evidence that the recent apparent increase...
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Lightning Payments – When Are They Too Small To Secure?

Abstract: When making low value payments on the lightning network, especially in “high” onchain fee environments, the security benefits of the lightning’s HTLC system may be somewhat limited. This problem may only be applicable in a limited number of scenarios, namely while the payment is in-flight and mainly for payment routers. Quantifying the magnitude of...
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The Bitcoin Forum

Abstract In this piece we examine the history of the Bitcoin forum, which Satoshi launched in November 2009 and is still around today. In particular we focus on various hacks which impacted the forum in the 2011 to 2015 period. We also focus on the forum’s finances, including donations it received of over 6,000 BTC...
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Reckless – Chapter 21: Proof Of Stake Economy

Chapter 21 of the book Reckless: The Story Of Cryptocurrency Interest Rates is published below. The full book is available on Amazon. The book was written before the bankruptcy of FTX and therefore does not include coverage of this event. However, the book does provide useful commentary in the run up to the failure of FTX, which...
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Reckless – Chapter 20: Staking Derivatives

Chapter 20 of the book Reckless: The Story Of Cryptocurrency Interest Rates is published below. The full book is available on Amazon. The book was written before the bankruptcy of FTX and therefore does not include coverage of this event. However, the book does provide useful commentary in the run up to the failure of FTX, which...
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Cryptocurrency Interest Rate Derivative Discussion (Twitter Spaces)

Next Tuesday, 4 April 2023 (10:00 UTC/ 6PM SGT), we invite you to join one of our Co-Founders Arthur Hayes and the CEO of Voltz Labs, Simon Jones for a discussion covering Bitcoin and cryptocurrency interest rate derivatives.   You’ll find the link to the Twitter Space here.  Related The post appeared first on Blog BitMex
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Reckless – Chapter 19: The Proof Of Stake Interest Rate

Chapter 19 of the book Reckless: The Story Of Cryptocurrency Interest Rates is published below. The full book is available on Amazon. The book was written before the bankruptcy of FTX and therefore does not include coverage of this event. However, the book does provide useful commentary in the run up to the failure of FTX, which...
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